Abstract: Analyzing the risk of great epidemic disease of pigs to provide functions reference for prevention and control measures. Screen and define the risk index according to the selecting principle of appraisal criteria, which through byinvestigation, data search and expert testification. Use the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to define the evaluation index weight. Evaluation model was set up based on the operation principle of probability theory and the method of weighed synthesis in mathematical statistics. To set up system for evaluating the great epidemic disease risks of pigs, which including evaluation index system, appraisal standards of index quantifying, index weight, mathematical evaluation model, the classification standard for risks. The system of risk evaluation can be used actually. It can be a suitable and effective method of prevention and control measures in the practical applications.

Key words: pig; major infectious diseases; risk factor; risk assessment; mathematic model