China Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine ›› 2024, Vol. 51 ›› Issue (2): 728-735.doi: 10.16431/j.cnki.1671-7236.2024.02.029

• Preventive Veterinary Medicine • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Prediction and Analysis of Potential Distribution Area and Risk Factors of Bathochytrium dendrobatidis

BIE Jia, SHA Longqian, YAN Jianyu   

  1. College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Kunming University, Kunming 650214, China
  • Received:2023-08-15 Online:2024-02-05 Published:2024-01-29
  • Contact: 云南省教育厅科学研究基金项目(2022J0643);昆明学院引进人才科研项目(YJL23002)

Abstract: 【Objective】 Chytridiomycosis is a disease caused by the infection of the aquatic fungus Batrachyttrium dentrobatidis (B.dendrobatidis), which has been one of the main reasons for the significant reduction or even extinction of amphibian populations for over half a century.At present, there is no effective treatment method for chytridiomycosis yet.The investigation and research on the distribution and spread of B.dendrobatidis worldwide, as well as the analysis of the distribution risks and influencing factors of B.dendrobatidis at the global and regional scales, can provide basic research data for the formulation of preventive measures.【Method】 The distribution data of B.dendrobatidis in the world were used and 20 climate environment variables were considered.After the B.dendrobatidis distribution data and variables were screened, a MaxEnt model was established to compare the relationship between six variables and B.dendrobatidis distribution risk, and predicted the distribution risk of B.dendrobatidis in the world and mainland China.【Result】 The results showed that the top four variables with the highest contribution to the probability of B.dendrobatidis distribution were in order of annual average temperature, annual precipitation, temperature seasonality and precipitation seasonality.The overall relationship between annual average temperature, temperature seasonality and the distribution probability of the B.dendrobatidis showed a positive correlation first and then a negative correlation.The relationship between annual precipitation, precipitation seasonality and the distribution probability of the B.dendrobatidis were positively and negatively correlated, respectively.The high-risk areas of global distribution of B.dendrobatidis were mainly distributed in Southern mainland China, Southeastern Australia, Central Papua New Guinea, Southern Sweden, Germany, Poland, Romania, Southern United Kingdom, Ireland, France, Eastern Madagascar, Sudan, Southern United States, Eastern Peru, The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia and Japan etc.And the high-risk areas of B.dendrobatidis in mainland China were mainly concentrated in Northern Guangdong, Central and Northern Guangxi, Yunnan, Guizhou, Hunan, Jiangxi, Fujian, Zhejiang, Southern Jiangsu, Southern Anhui, Southern Hubei, Chongqing, Eastern and Southern Sichuan, Southern Shaanxi, etc.【Conclusion】 The distribution of B.dendrobatidis was closely related to temperature and precipitation.The high-risk areas of B.dendrobatidis in the world were mainly in Europe, Southern Africa and Southern North America, and the high-risk areas in mainland China were mainly in Central China, Eastern China, Southern China and the Southeast of Southwest region of China.

Key words: Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis; maximum entropy model; risk prediction; amphibian; climate environment variables

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