蛙壶菌潜在分布区及其风险因素预测与分析

doi:10.16431/j.cnki.1671-7236.2024.02.029

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 【目的】壶菌病是一种由蛙壶菌(Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis)感染导致的疾病,在近半个多世纪的时间里,是导致两栖动物种群数量大量减少甚至灭绝的主要原因之一。目前,壶菌病尚没有行之有效的治疗方法,因此,对世界范围内蛙壶菌的分布与传播进行调查研究,分析蛙壶菌在世界和区域尺度的分布风险及影响因素,可为其预防措施的制定提供基础研究资料。【方法】使用蛙壶菌在世界范围内的分布数据,共考虑了20个气候环境变量,经过对蛙壶菌分布数据和变量进行筛选,建立最大熵模型,比较纳入模型的6个变量与蛙壶菌分布风险的关系,并预测蛙壶菌在世界范围和中国大陆的分布风险。【结果】变量中对蛙壶菌分布概率贡献度最高的前4位依次为年平均气温、年降水量、温度季节性、降水季节性。蛙壶菌分布概率与年平均气温和温度季节性总体均呈先正相关后负相关,与年降水量和降水季节性分别呈正相关和负相关。蛙壶菌全球分布的高风险地区主要在中国大陆南部、澳大利亚东南部、巴布亚新几内亚中部、瑞典南部、德国、波兰、罗马尼亚、英国南部、爱尔兰、法国、马达加斯加东部、苏丹、美国南部、秘鲁东部、埃塞俄比亚和日本等。其在中国大陆分布的高风险区域主要集中在广东北部、广西中部和北部、云南、贵州、湖南、江西、福建、浙江、江苏南部、安徽南部、湖北南部、重庆、四川东部及南部、陕西南部等地区。【结论】蛙壶菌的分布与气温和降水关系密切,其在全球分布的高风险地区主要在欧洲、非洲南部和北美洲南部,在中国大陆分布的高风险区域主要集中在华中、华东、华南地区和西南地区的东南部。

关键词: 蛙壶菌; 最大熵模型; 风险预测; 两栖动物; 气象因素

Abstract: 【Objective】 Chytridiomycosis is a disease caused by the infection of the aquatic fungus Batrachyttrium dentrobatidis (B.dendrobatidis), which has been one of the main reasons for the significant reduction or even extinction of amphibian populations for over half a century.At present, there is no effective treatment method for chytridiomycosis yet.The investigation and research on the distribution and spread of B.dendrobatidis worldwide, as well as the analysis of the distribution risks and influencing factors of B.dendrobatidis at the global and regional scales, can provide basic research data for the formulation of preventive measures.【Method】 The distribution data of B.dendrobatidis in the world were used and 20 climate environment variables were considered.After the B.dendrobatidis distribution data and variables were screened, a MaxEnt model was established to compare the relationship between six variables and B.dendrobatidis distribution risk, and predicted the distribution risk of B.dendrobatidis in the world and mainland China.【Result】 The results showed that the top four variables with the highest contribution to the probability of B.dendrobatidis distribution were in order of annual average temperature, annual precipitation, temperature seasonality and precipitation seasonality.The overall relationship between annual average temperature, temperature seasonality and the distribution probability of the B.dendrobatidis showed a positive correlation first and then a negative correlation.The relationship between annual precipitation, precipitation seasonality and the distribution probability of the B.dendrobatidis were positively and negatively correlated, respectively.The high-risk areas of global distribution of B.dendrobatidis were mainly distributed in Southern mainland China, Southeastern Australia, Central Papua New Guinea, Southern Sweden, Germany, Poland, Romania, Southern United Kingdom, Ireland, France, Eastern Madagascar, Sudan, Southern United States, Eastern Peru, The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia and Japan etc.And the high-risk areas of B.dendrobatidis in mainland China were mainly concentrated in Northern Guangdong, Central and Northern Guangxi, Yunnan, Guizhou, Hunan, Jiangxi, Fujian, Zhejiang, Southern Jiangsu, Southern Anhui, Southern Hubei, Chongqing, Eastern and Southern Sichuan, Southern Shaanxi, etc.【Conclusion】 The distribution of B.dendrobatidis was closely related to temperature and precipitation.The high-risk areas of B.dendrobatidis in the world were mainly in Europe, Southern Africa and Southern North America, and the high-risk areas in mainland China were mainly in Central China, Eastern China, Southern China and the Southeast of Southwest region of China.

Key words: Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis; maximum entropy model; risk prediction; amphibian; climate environment variables

中图分类号:

S852.66

别佳, 沙龙倩, 阎建余. 蛙壶菌潜在分布区及其风险因素预测与分析[J]. 中国畜牧兽医, 2024, 51(2): 728-735.

BIE Jia, SHA Longqian, YAN Jianyu. Prediction and Analysis of Potential Distribution Area and Risk Factors of Bathochytrium dendrobatidis[J]. China Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine, 2024, 51(2): 728-735.

参考文献

[1] SMITH D,O'BRIEN D,HALL J,et al.Challenging a host-pathogen paradigm:Susceptibility to chytridiomycosis is decoupled from genetic erosion[J].Journal of Evolutionary Biology,2022,35(4):589-598.
[2] 于业辉,张守纯,赵玉军,等.壶菌病与两栖动物的种群衰退[J].动物学杂志,2006,3:118-122. YU Y H,ZHANG S C,ZHAO Y J,et al.Chytridiomycosis and amphibian population decline[J].Chinese Journal of Zoology,2006,3:118-122.(in Chinese)
[3] DASZAK P,BERGER L,CUNNINGHAM A A,et al.Emerging infectious diseases and amphibian population declines[J].Emerging Infectious Diseases,1999,5(6):735-748.
[4] 张晗,邓捷,马红英,等.两栖动物壶菌病相关研究进展[J].陕西农业科学,2023,69(3):117-120. ZHANG H,DENG J,MA H Y,et al.Advance of research in chytridiomycosis of amphibian[J].Shaanxi Journal of Agricultural Sciences,2023,69(3):117-120.(in Chinese)
[5] 汪松,赵尔宓.中国濒危动物红皮书.两栖类和爬行类[M].北京:科学出版社,1998. WANG S,ZHAO E F.China Red Data Book of Endangered Animals.Amphibia and Reptilia[M].Beijing:Science Press,1998.(in Chinese)
[6] KNAPP R A,JOSEPH M B,SMITH T C,et al.Effectiveness of antifungal treatments during chytridiomycosis epizootics in populations of an endangered frog[J].PeerJ,2022,10:e12712.
[7] SUN D,ELLEPOLA G,HERATH J,et al.The two chytrid pathogens of amphibians in Eurasia-climatic niches and future expansion[J].BMC Ecology and Evolution,2023,23(1):26.
[8] KASLER A,UJSZEGI J,HOLLY D,et al.In vitro thermal tolerance of a hypervirulent lineage of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis:Growth arrestment by elevated temperature and recovery following thermal treatment[J].Mycologia,2022,114(4):661-669.
[9] HARDMAN R H,REINERT L K,IRWIN K J,et al.Disease state associated with chronic toe lesions in hellbenders may alter anti-chytrid skin defenses[J].Scientific Reports,2023,13(1):1982.
[10] NIE P,FENG J.Global niche and range shifts of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis,a highly virulent amphibian-killing fungus[J].Fungal Biology,2022,126(11-12):809-816.
[11] RAWIEN J,JAIRAM-DOERGA S.Predicted Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis infection sites in Guyana,Suriname,and French Guiana using the species distribution model MaxEnt[J].PLoS One,2022,17(7):e0270134.
[12] TYTAR V,NEKRASOVA O,PUPINS M,et al.Modeling the distribution of the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis with special reference to Ukraine[J].Journal of Fungi,2023,9(6):607.
[13] 别佳.中国大陆非洲猪瘟时空流行特征及传播风险研究[D].哈尔滨:东北农业大学,2022. BIE J.Study on the spatio-temporal characteristics and transmission risk of African swine fever in mainland China[D].Harbin:Northeast Agricultural University,2022.(in Chinese)
[14] PHILLIPS S J,ANDERSON R P,SCHAPIRE R E.Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions[J].Ecological Modelling,2006,190(3):231-259.
[15] ELITH J,GRAHAM C H,ANDERSON R P,et al.Novel methods improve prediction of species'distributions from occurrence data[J].Ecography,2006,29(2):129-151.
[16] PHILLIPS S J,DUDIK M,ELITH J,et al.Sample selection bias and presence-only distribution models:Implications for background and pseudo-absence data[J].Ecological Applications,2009,19(1):181-197.
[17] KHANUM R,MUMTAZ A S,UMAR S K.Predicting impacts of climate change on medicinal asclepiads of Pakistan using MaxEnt modeling[J].Acta Oecologica,2013,49:23-31.
[18] LIU B,GAO X,MA J,et al.Influence of host and environmental factors on the distribution of the Japanese encephalitis vector Culex tritaeniorhynchus in China[J].International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health,2018,15(9):1848.
[19] SEIMON T A,AYEBARE S,SEKISAMBU R,et al.Assessing the threat of amphibian Chytrid fungus in the Albertine Rift:Past,present and future[J].PLoS One,2015,10(12):e0145841.
[20] MEROW C,SMITH M J,SILANDER J A.A practical guide to MaxEnt for modeling species'distributions:What it does,and why inputs and settings matter[J].Ecography,2013,36(10):1058-1069.
[21] SCHILLIGER L,PAILLUSSEAU C,FRANCOIS C,et al.Major emerging fungal diseases of reptiles and amphibians[J].Pathogens,2023,12(3):429.
[22] HAVER M,ROUX G L,FRIESEN J,et al.The role of abiotic variables in an emerging global amphibian fungal disease in mountains[J].Science of the Total Environment,2022,815:152735.
[23] BOLOM-HUET R,PINEDAO E,DIAZ-FLEISCHER F,et al.Known and estimated distribution in Mexico of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis,a pathogenic fungus of amphibians[J].Biotropica,2019,51(5):731-746.
[24] ALVARADO-RYBAK M,LEPE-LOPEZ M,PENAFIEL-RICAURTE A,et al.Bioclimatic and anthropogenic variables shape the occurrence of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis over a large latitudinal gradient[J].Scientific Reports,2021,11(1):17383.
[25] SCHAMPERA C,AGHA R,MANZI F,et al.Parasites do not adapt to elevated temperature,as evidenced from experimental evolution of a phytoplankton-fungus system[J].Biology Letters,2022,18(2):20210560.
[26] LIU X,ROHR J R,LI Y.Climate,vegetation,introduced hosts and trade shape a global wildlife pandemic[J].Proceedings Biological Sciences,2013,280(1753):20122506.
[27] RUGGERI J,LONGO A V,GAIARSA M P,et al.Seasonal variation in population abundance and chytrid infection in Stream-Dwelling frogs of the Brazilian Atlantic forest[J].PLoS One,2015,10(7):e0130554.
[28] RUGGERI J,CARVALHO E S S P,JAMES T Y,et al.Amphibian chytrid infection is influenced by rainfall seasonality and water availability[J].Diseases of Aquatic Organisms,2018,127(2):107-115.
[29] JACINTO-MALDONADO M,GONZALEZ-SALAZAR C,BASANTA M D,et al.Water pollution increases the risk of chytridiomycosis in Mexican amphibians[J].Ecohealth,2023,20(1):74-83.
[30] RUMSCHLAG S L,ROTH S A,MCMAHON T A,et al.Variability in environmental persistence but not per capita transmission rates of the amphibian chytrid fungus leads to differences in host infection prevalence[J].The Journal of Animal Ecology,2022,91(1):170-181.
[31] BERGER L,HYATT A D,SPEARE R,et al.Life cycle stages of the amphibian chytrid Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis[J].Diseases of Aquatic Organisms,2005,68(1):51-63.
[32] 王晓龙,王思睿,张子群,等.中国进口日本两栖动物的壶菌病输入风险分析[A].中国灾害防御协会风险分析专业委员会第六届年会[C].2014. WANG X L,WANG S R,ZHANG Z Q,et al.Risk assessment for chytridiomycosis importing by amphibians trade from Japan to China[A].Information Technology for Risk Analysis and Crisis Response[C].2014.(in Chinese)
[33] SREEDHARAN G,VASUDEVAN K.Chytridiomycosis in Asian amphibians,a global resource for Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis(Bd) research[J].Journal of the Indian Institute of Science,2021,101(2):227-241.
[34] 王波.西南喀斯特地貌区两栖动物分布格局及气候变化对其潜在影响[D].长沙:中南林业科技大学,2021. WANG B.Geographical distribution pattern and climate change impact on amphibians in the Karst aeras of Southwest China[D].Changsha:Central South University of Forestry and Technology,2021.(in Chinese)
[35] 闻苡,张蔚,丁利,等.云南腾冲北海湿地自然保护区两栖动物多样性现状[J].动物学杂志,2021,56(6):844-855. WEN Y,ZHANG W,DING L,et al.Amphibian biodiversity of Beihai Wetland Nature Reserve in Tengchong county,Yunnan province[J].Chinese Journal of Zoology,2021,56(6):844-855.(in Chinese)
[36] LI Z,WANG Q,SUN K,et al.Prevalence of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis in amphibians from 2000 to 2021:A global systematic review and Meta-analysis[J].Frontiers in Veterinary Science,2021,8:791237.
[37] JAIRAM R,HARRIS A,ORGEIX C A.The last south American redoubt?Tested surinamese anurans still chytrid free[J].Ecohealth,2021,18(4):465-474.